A historic shift occurred in 2025: China became the world’s largest macadamia producer, offsetting output declines in traditional areas. In 2026, global supply will grow with structural optimization, tending to be loose.
I. 2025 Historic Turning Point
Global in-shell macadamia output reached ~346,900 tons (+7% YoY). China (104,000 tons, +49.6%) led for the first time, with Yunnan/Guangxi plantations in peak production. South Africa (83,400 tons, -6.3%) and Australia (43,800 tons, -18.8%) saw declines due to extreme weather; Kenya (47,500 tons, +7.6%) grew steadily.
II. 2026 Production Outlook
1. China: Its leading position will strengthen. With Yunnan’s planting dividends and better orchard management, output is expected to grow 5%-10% (no longer 50% growth), stabilizing global supply.
2. Australia: Cautiously optimistic. Good flowering/fruiting and low inventory will drive recovery, with output likely returning to over 50,000 tons (long-term average) without extreme weather.
3. South Africa & Kenya: South Africa’s output may recover to over 90,000 tons; Kenya’s output will stay stable at 47,000-50,000 tons.
III. Market Impacts & Conclusion
Global output may hit ~370,000 tons, easing supply tightness. China’s output growth may pressure international prices, but its consumer demand will support prices. Extreme weather (El Niño/La Niña) remains the biggest risk. In 2026, global supply will be loose, China’s leading role will consolidate, and it will gain more pricing power.
